From early on in this World Cup I’ve felt that if the Dutchies and Deutschies maintain their level and Argentina and Brazil don’t improve, the former pair will beat the latter pair. For Germany and Brazil, I think this is indeed the case and I expect to see the Germans in the final.

For Argentina vs the Netherlands it is harder to  call, but I’m seeing orange. Here’s why:

Argentina’s form – The Argies have been way below their normal level for most of the competition. Their group should have been easy for them, but they made hard work of grinding out a series of 1-goal wins. They looked somewhat more convincing against Belgium, but would they have been so solid without Higuaín’s early goal? He took it very well, but only after a lucky deflection took the ball straight to him, completely wrongfooting the Belgian defence. Their ageing team (the oldest in the competition – the Dutch are only the 25th oldest) is probably getting tired.

And how do you solve a problem like di Maria? We saw in the Switzerland game what happens when he doesn’t show up – now he literally won’t show up due to injury. Argentina will rely more than ever on Messi and things could get a bit, well, messy…

Netherlands’ form – It’s tempting to conclude (and some have) that the Dutch level has dropped in the last two games, given the lack of goals. But that misses an important point – their two North American opponents have proven incredibly hard for anyone to score against. Mexico’s keeper Ochoa was outstanding all tournament, conceding only once in the whole group stage. Costa Rica only conceded two goals (besides penalties in shootouts) during their entire five-match tournament. Their tactics in general were rather negative, seemingly playing for penalties (perhaps understandably, having won their shootout in the previous round). Don’t be deceived, the Dutch are still in form, far more so than it might appear.

Marginal offsides – Also against Costa Rica, the Dutch final ball wasn’t bad, it was just that the runs were often mistimed, most of them only fractionally. They were caught offside, or as the Dutch say, “outsidegame”, 13 times. That’s an extraordinary number. To put it into perspective, the record for a team in a world cup match is 20 (by England vs Kuwait in 1982) and that was under the old offside rule, which was far stricter. Changing the timing of their runs only slightly (which I’m sure they’ve been working on) would have created maybe ten additional chances.

The Krul factor – the Newcastle United keeper went the right way on all five Costa Rican penalties and saved two. This isn’t just crucial when a match actually goes to penalties. The threat of penalties, when playing against a team that is strong on them, can often pressure teams into taking extra risks late in normal time and in extra time. It’s almost like starting half a goal up.

The tosti factor – the last two matches I was meeting people for lunch, so couldn’t get my beloved ham en kaas tosti. No such chances will be taken this time…

The Tostimonster